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Policy
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September 30, 2024
For the Republican candidate, the uproar from the right-wing base outweighs the alienation of others.
A skilled opportunist who rose from real poverty to the edge of the White House on sheer ambition, JD Vance spent a lifetime indulging the powers that be. He has been remarkably successful in appealing to various categories of influence centers, from professors at elite institutions to military commanders to Wall Street employers to anti-Trump centrists to Hollywood bigwigs to Silicon Valley plutocrats—and finally Donald Trump and MAGA. the movement itself. A cynic might say that Vance is the ultimate apple polisher, always ready to say the words others want to hear, even if they contradict his previous statements.
Like mine Nation His colleague Chris Lehmann astutely noted that Vance sold himself for the first time, in his bestseller Hillybilly Elegy (2016) to the liberal media elite as the native whistleblower, white working-class underdog, refugee from Appalachia who could explain all the depraved people who voted for Trump. In this incarnation, Vance offered a mix of self-help (the other hillbillies just had to study hard, stay off drugs and, one speculated, attend an Ivy League school) and warnings about Trump’s dangerous demagoguery. It was a message that pleased centrist and liberal elites who wanted to keep Trump out of power but did not want to fundamentally change the economic order.
But as it became clear that Trump had remade the GOP in his own image, Vance was shrewd enough to realize that he now had to square off with the man he once compared to Hitler. As before, Vance employed his considerable skill in false flattery. He began echoing hard-right talking points, among other things expresses suspicion of vaccination orders. This earned him the attention of Trump, and then he was endorsed to be the Republican Senate candidate in Ohio in 2022, and Vance was eventually elevated to the position of vice president.
Since becoming a Trump aide, Vance has relished the executive role of MAGA and has made statements that are just as inflammatory as Trump’s. It was Vance who pushed him the racist lie that Haitian immigrants eat cats and dogs became nationally known. Lately, so has Vance embraced the Christian nationalists such as Lance Wallnau, for whom Vance attended on Saturday. Wallnau, an outspoken theocrat, described Harris as a demonically supported “Jezebel.”
Current number
Even if the at-will skill of the targets of his ambition was at its peak, Vance discovered that serial glory was also a good way to become more widely unpopular. At the end of the day, no one likes applesauce. Reshaping yourself to please others is a good way to earn distrust.
In an age of negative polarization, it’s easy enough to hate a politician, but Vance excels at it. Of the four major candidates who won the national ticket this year, Vance is the most unpopular – even more so than his fellow candidate. Vance is, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tally was judged favorably 34.7 percent of the voters, against the unfavorable evaluation of 45.7 percent, net minus 11 percent. In contrast, Trump’s numbers 42.9 percent are favorable, 52.6 percent are unfavorable (net minus 9.6). Kamala Harris’s numbers 45.4 percent are favorable, compared to 47.1 percent unfavorable (net minus 1.7). Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, is the only person nationally to give a positive endorsement. It’s his numbers 40.1 percent are favorable, compared to 36.4 unfavorable (net plus 3.7 percent).
Vance’s numbers are even worse when you look at the demographics it should appeal to the most. At 40, she will be Trump’s youthful running mate, able to attract younger MAGA supporters. Yet, among most young people, Vance has the opposite effect. A Harvard Youth Poll was released on Tuesday showed that 18 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 30 rated Vance favorably, compared to 46 percent unfavorably (net minus 28 percent). In this poll, Trump was slightly more unpopular (a net minus 30), while Harris was a net plus 2 and Walz was a net plus 14.
on saturday The New York Times was reported:
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, is viewed more favorably than his Republican counterpart, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, in three Midwestern states. polls by The New York Times and Siena College.
Polls as the two men prepared for a debate on Tuesday showed Mr. Walz was viewed unfavorably by 44 percent and 41 percent of likely voters in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, respectively. Mr. Vance was rated favorably by 42 percent of likely voters and 48 percent unfavorably, according to the polls.
Even in Ohio, Walz’s approval rating is 1 percent higher than Vance’s.
The Trump campaign would argue that these depressing numbers are irrelevant. The theory is that Vance is playing a strategic role in intentionally polarizing voters. He energizes the GOP base by raising hot-button issues, which, combined with more moderate Republicans who don’t like Democrats, gives Trump and Vance a real shot at the White House. As one of Trump’s advisers he said CNN: “He’s a pack dog. That’s partly why he was hired, and that’s what he does well.”
Republican strategist Josh Holmes reinforced this argument, telling The New York Times“The Republican ticket needed a younger voice, one that could connect with the lower-minded young men in the base. We’re talking about 25- to 50-year-old Trump fans, and Vance is very comfortable with them.”
It would be foolish to dismiss the argument. This kind of polarization with an unpopular candidate is exactly how Trump won in 2016. However, the government’s big advantage in 2016 was that intense hatred against millions of Americans Hillary Clinton, as the main villain of right-wing propaganda and the defender and advocate of her husband’s most unpopular policies, such as free trade, has had a decades-long culture war with her.
In 2024, Kamala Harris is mildly disliked at worst, while Tim Walz enjoys net approval. It’s a very different environment.
This time, the Trump/Vance campaign is taking a gamble, betting that voters attracted to Vance’s culture war bigotry will outnumber moderates. In contrast, the Harris/Walz campaign also makes a bet: Americans are ready to move on from the culture wars. While Harris is currently in a good position to winthe closeness of the competition should give us pause. Vance rose very far by being kind. This year, you can go even further by being ugly.
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Katrina vanden Heuvel
editorial director and publisher, The Nation
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