Democrats’ Secret Weapon in Sun Belt States: Unions

With seven of the key swing states now in tight races between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, it’s possible the presidential election will come down to the key Sun Belt states of Arizona and Nevada.

In both states, Democrats are in a position to vote in large numbers, despite concerns raised by some recent polls.

on monday, The New York Times ran polling numbers suggesting that Trump was ahead by 5 percent in Arizona. The newspaper headline shouted that the Republican nominee is showing “signs of strength” in the Sun Belt, despite most polls suggesting Harris and Trump are close to a tie. Take it with a pinch of salt.

Yes, it is possible that a Times there was a survey for something; However, it is more likely that this was a fraudulent vote. After all, in August the Times It showed a 5 percent lead for Harris in the state. And since the main political story of the midterms was Trump’s wildly tumultuous and lackluster debate performance, it’s hard to see how a 10-point swing — a huge number under any circumstances, let alone one in which the Republicans were on the ropes — could have been in Trump’s favor during those weeks.

Pollsters I’ve spoken to in recent months who specialize in surveying western states don’t believe Trump has a safe cushion in the Grand Canyon State. And his candidacy will certainly not be helped by the weakness of GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake, who has bounced from one conspirator to another in the two years since she lost her race for governor.

Indeed, the Marist College poll has an opponent, Ruben Gallego was up six points. Even Republican-leaning ones Trafalgar Group Gallego is ahead of him by four points.

The story is similar in neighboring Nevada. Jackie Rosen, until recently considered one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats, has built a huge lead over Sam Brown. The latest figures were released on Thursday Noble Predictive Insightsthe senator is ahead by well over 10 points, with independents overwhelmingly going for Rosen. Other polls, including one conducted by Fox, have reached similar conclusions in recent weeks.

There’s certainly room for split-ticket voters in Arizona and Nevada — and Noble’s poll suggests Harris has a much smaller lead over Trump than Rosen has over Brown. But in close races, a good ground game and strong downball candidates are key — and that’s exactly what Democrats are focusing on in the final stretch of the race.

In Nevada, the Culinary Workers Union has previously launched massive and very effective ballot actions. When I visited Las Vegas earlier this year, their spokesman said they would turn their full attention to the election only after the union concluded a marathon series of negotiations with the city’s major casinos, in some cases threatening to strike. at the end of August signed by the union the first deal with the Venetians and the Palazzo. As a result, 4,000 employees received union protections, higher wages and better benefits, including a 32 percent pay increase over the next five years, and reduced workloads.

The Venetian was the last runway in a year-long round of negotiations. When the owners agreed to the settlement, it was a huge victory for organized labor in Las Vegas—now one of the epicenters of union power. It also marked the moment when the union could begin to fully focus on the elections.

Historically, Las Vegas unions have helped Democrats in close elections. Yes, many union members remain deeply resentful of the pandemic shutdowns that have shut down Las Vegas and eyeballed the state’s unemployment rate 30 percent In the spring of 2020, and Trump was able to at least partially exploit this dislike. His suggestion is one tax exemption for tip income— a tricky proposition that Harris was quick to point out — was aimed specifically at these workers, the Las Vegas waiters and bartenders who supplement their paychecks with tips.

On the ground, however, despite the GOP’s play for disgruntled union votes, Trump’s campaign is haphazard and far behind Harris’ campaign in organizational coherence. In early August, as Harris’ campaign took shape, he did 13 regional offices In Nevada, while Trump only had one. An awful lot has to be replaced in a few months.

Meanwhile, all of Nevada’s major unions, including the Nevada local of the Teamsters, supported Harris. And SEIU just started large-scale door-knocking campaign in the state. Meanwhile, JOIN HEREwhich was critical in swinging Arizona and Georgia to Joe Biden in 2020, announced that it will knock on 3.5 million doors in 10 swing states, including Nevada and Arizona, between now and the election. If they reach that goal, it will be the largest fundraiser by a single union in U.S. history.

Yes, the presidential elections are close in Nevada and Arizona. But Democrats have organizational advantages, certainly in Nevada and possibly Arizona, that position them well for the final, frantic rush to the finish line.