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Asian stocks slumped near their highest levels in two-and-a-half years on Tuesday and the U.S. dollar strengthened following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that derailed bets on sharp cuts in interest rates, while tensions in the Middle East kept risk sentiment in check.
Oil prices remained steady and gold traded just below last week’s record high as investors awaited U.S. jobs data for clarity on the pace of declines American rates.
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MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.13 percent at 620.05 on Tuesday, just below the two-and-a-half-year high of 627.66 hit on Monday . The index is up 17 percent since the start of the year.
Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.5 percent in early trading after losing 4.8 percent on Monday, as investors face the victory of monetary policy hawk Shigeru Ishiba in the race for the country’s prime minister . [.T]
Japanese stocks were supported by a weaker yen which settled at 144.09 per dollar in early trading. [FRX/]
With mainland China’s financial markets closed for the rest of the week, the meteoric rally that supported Asian markets last week is about to take a breather. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is also closed on Tuesday.
A series of economic stimulus measures has led to a sharp rise in Chinese stocks, with the blue-chip CSI300 up 25 percent since the start of last week, as global investors prepare to bet on China again .
“I think we’re headed for choppy trading until the U.S. data comes in,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, noting that volume is low with Chinese markets closed.
NOT hurried
Investor attention has been focused on the pace of the Fed’s rate cuts after the U.S. central bank launched an easing cycle last month with a 50 basis point cut.
Fed Chairman Powell indicated on Monday that the U.S. central bank would now likely stick to cuts of a quarter percentage point after new data boosted confidence in economic growth and government spending. consumption.
“This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” Powell said.
That led traders to assess a 38 percent chance of a 50 basis point cut next month, up from 53 percent on Friday, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Traders expect 70 basis points of easing this year.
Shifting expectations around rate cuts supported the dollar, with the dollar index up slightly at 100.77. The euro remained stable at $1.11355.
“As usual, Powell is not incentivized by market prices,” said Simpson of City Index. “And saying the cuts aren’t following a predefined path should serve as a warning to dollar bears, given that the data has generally surprised on the upside in recent weeks.”
Given the Fed’s current focus on the labor market, Tuesday’s data on job openings for August and the ISM manufacturing survey for September will be important for rate expectations and the dollar, said economist Kristina Clifton of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“The dollar may remain heavy if this week’s data shows the U.S. labor market remains in reasonable shape.”
In the commodities sector, oil prices were steady in early trading Tuesday, as the prospect of additional supply amid sluggish global demand growth offset fears that an escalation of conflict in the Middle East could disrupt exports in the main producing region.
Brent crude futures rose 0.11 percent to $71.78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.07 percent to $68.22 a barrel. [O/R]
Spot gold was up 0.11 percent at $2,637.56 an ounce, not far from Thursday’s record high of $2,685.42. Gold rose 13 percent between July and September, its best quarterly performance in more than four years.
(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
(Only the title and image of this report may have been reworked by Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
First publication: October 1, 2024 | 9:04 a.m. STI