Restrictions on immigration

Even the prime minister’s overture to modest, temporary tax increases has caused tension within the minority coalition in power. Macron’s allies have argued that the tax hikes are a red line — even though the swelling budget deficit is largely the result of unfunded tax cuts Macron has passed since 2017. These include cutting the tax on large assets. real estate portfolios, the reduction of the flat-rate tax on capital gains, and the reduction of the corporate tax rate from 33.3 percent to 25 percent. When he left office in September, outgoing finance minister Bruno Le Maire boasted of the combined €55bn of tax cuts he had overseen, warning that any reversal would pose a serious threat to businesses.

The scuffle is likely to be little more than a fight for optics between the warring parties who currently share the cabinet and the governing coalition. The Républicain party, formerly the ruling party on France’s right, has been clamping down on taxation for years, and total government revenue-related liabilities will reach 43.2 percent of GDP in 2023. For reasons of legacy, Macron and his allies also want to quell anything that appears to be a permanent break from the pro-business creed. But it can also be politically suicidal not to maintain a facade of balance. Temporary extraordinary taxes on large corporations and most income earners are an easy price to pay for the long-term, permanent cuts in public spending and services that are the only way to contain the deficit.

Striving to improve the image of the extreme right in business circles, Le Pen was also interested in economic policy. In response to Barnier’s general political speech on October 1, Le Pen promised to “give [the PM] a chance, however slim.”

In return, the new prime minister must be careful to favor Le Pen, whose support will be crucial to Barnier’s survival in the coming months. Up to this point, the main olive branch has been the appointment of Bruno Retailleau, a senator from the hard-right Républicains, as interior minister – a task that also includes domestic policing and immigration policy.

Retailleau is known to be vying to make a mark on the county’s immigration system, perhaps through another round-up reform bill. This is the chance for the Macronist coalition and the Républicains and Rassemblement National opposition to revive many of the toughest elements of the bill passed last winter. However, in January, some parts of the law were thrown out by the Constitutional Council, which caused an uproar from the far right due to obstruction of judicial oversight and parliamentary power. Retailleau, who is open to constitutional reform enabling stricter immigration legislation, has warned in recent weeks that “a multicultural society carries the risk of becoming a multi-ethnic society” and that there is nothing sacred about the “rule of law”.

Macron and Le Pen – with Barnier as arbiter – could strike a deal on immigration and fiscal austerity. But new elections are still only a matter of time. Le Pen advocated new elections as soon as next summer, when the National Assembly can be constitutionally dissolved again.

Until then, the Új Népfront will probably be watching from the sidelines. The left condemns Macron’s refusal to form an NFP government and attempts to shore up the popular opposition, although the first union marches and party-organized protests in September and October were calm. In the coming months, the NFP’s most important challenge will be to preserve its unity, to counter the centrifugal tendencies of both the left-wing France Insoumise and the centrist Parti Socialiste. A wing of the centre-left establishment – ​​mainly not in parliament, revealingly – dreams of smashing the alliance and drawing centrist elements of the NFP into an illusory pact with Macron.

Even if unity can be maintained, the NFP will still struggle to break through its ceiling of support among the wider population. Despite this summer’s fireworks, the electorate appears frozen in third, and has largely remained so since 2017, with three blocs – a volatile left and center and Le Pen’s rising far right – vying for power. But there may be a silver lining to Macron’s unofficial deal with Le Pen. NFP is currently the only alternative.