It’s going to be tough for Eric Adams to get out of this mess

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been indicted on four federal counts of bribery, wire fraud and foreign fundraising. The indictment It was unsealed this morning by prosecutors in the Southern District of New York. Based on the allegations in the indictment, it appears that Adams was bought by Turkish nationals while he was still just a Brooklyn borough president, and that these foreign actors believed they were getting in on the ground floor of corrupting a future US president.

In essence, Adams allegedly violated a very clear and very basic law: he knowingly took campaign contributions from foreign nationals. American politicians cannot take money from foreign actors, for the obvious reason that such contributions could expose politicians to foreign influence. Adams took money from Turkish citizens as if he were running for mayor of Istanbul, not New York City. And when Turkish citizens needed a favor, like when they tried to open their consulate without passing basic fire safety inspections, Adams was there for them, allegedly pressuring the fire department to write down their building without an inspection.

Adams did this knowingly, which is a key point in prosecuting this type of crime. Much of the evidence presented in the indictment comes from text messages sent by Adams himself or his associates. Adams and his co-conspirators seem to have fallen for the false gospel of “deletion,” thinking that deleting text messages actually makes them disappear. At one point, Adams and a colleague had this exchange:

[T]Adams Staffer messaged ADAMS: “To be o[n the]secure site Please delete all messages you sent me.” ADAMS replied, “Always do.”

In another crime vignette, one of Adams’ associates volunteered to speak with the FBI, but during the meeting he went to the bathroom and “deleted the encrypted messaging apps he used to communicate with ADAMS,” according to the indictment. This is evidence not only of incompetence, but of remorse. Adams and his colleagues knew what they were doing was wrong.

What may really anger New Yorkers is that Adams did this to cheat New York of public funds. New York has a system where small dollar donations to political campaigns are “matched” by up to $2,000 from city taxpayers. Adams didn’t just take money from foreign investors; he also structured these payments (through a series of “straw puppets”, namely US citizens and green card holders who donated to Adams and were then repaid by Turkish citizens) to be small enough to qualify for government supplementary funds. So, for example, we split a $10,000 donation from a Turkish university into several $2,000 payments, each of which was eligible for public co-financing.

Adams denies all of these allegations, calling them “lies” in a video statement released last night. But “lying” is not a legal defense. When Adams has to defend himself in court – instead of Law and order episode is playing out in his head – his most likely defense will be to say he didn’t know where the money came from and blame his staff for soliciting illegal campaign contributions.

The problem with this defense will be that Adams didn’t just take money from Turkish citizens for his campaign; he also took a slew of trips and vacations around the world paid for by his far-flung benefactors. There’s a particularly hilarious exchange between an Adams co-worker and the person in charge of booking Adams’ free or discounted travel in Turkey that’s too perfect not to share:

On June 22, 2021, ADAMS, through Adams Staffer, asked the airline manager to book a flight to Istanbul for ADAMS. In order to conceal the favorable treatment, Adams Staffer asked the airline manager to charge ADAMS a “real” price:

Adams Staffer: How much do you owe? Please let them call me and I will pay.

Airline Manager: It’s very expensive because it’s at the last minute. I work at a discount

Adams Staffer: Okay. Thanks.

Airline manager: I’ll pay $50

…

Adams Staffer: No

Airline Manager: That would work, wouldn’t it

Adams Staffer: No, my dear. $50? What? Give me the right price.

Airline manager: How much do you have to pay? 🙂

Adams Staffer: Your every move is being watched right now. $1000 or so. Be somewhat realistic. We don’t want to be told you fly for free. Right now, the media’s attention is on Eric.

ADAMS paid about $1,100 each for round-trip economy tickets on Turkish Airline for himself and Adams’ partner, who were immediately upgraded to business class for free. If ADAMS had purchased business class tickets on the open market, they would have cost more than $15,000 in total.

The indictment is full of them. Adams will have a very hard time arguing that he didn’t know he was buying economy class tickets, yet he was flying business class.

Prosecutors don’t have to show what Adams’ Turkish patrons got out of that deal, but what they appear to have bought is influence, aside from the fire control stuff. The people who sent Adams money seemed to genuinely believe that he would one day become a major political figure, perhaps even President of the United States. I can almost imagine Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan jealously commenting on Vladimir Putin’s total ownership of Donald Trump and saying, “I’ve got to have one of these.”

While it is comforting to know that foreign malefactors seeking to influence our elections have no better political forecasting skills than Nate Silver, Bret Stephensor The Wall Street Journalconfusing to see how small the mayor of one of the richest cities on the planet could be bought. According to the indictment, Adams sold himself — and his city — for plane tickets, fancy hotel rooms and millions of dollars in campaign contributions. Despite Adams’ self-proclaimed “swagger,” he proved to be a relatively cheap date. Former New York mayors Jimmy Walker and John Lindsay must be turning in their gilded graves.

Adams, of course, is now entitled to the best protection Turkey can buy, and the legal process will take place over the next year. It will be interesting to see how much Adams borrows from impeachment king Donald Trump’s playbook. He’s already saying he’s being indicted for standing up for New Yorkers, a play on Trump’s famous “they’re coming after me to get to you” line. I believe that Adams’ team is coming at us with “lawyerly” accusations.

Of course, it’s not his legal arguments that are keeping Trump out of jail, but the fact that six Republican justices were caught on the Supreme Court. I’m not sure Adams has any such aces. U.S. District Judge Dale Ho will preside over the trial, which is fun because Ho is the former director of the ACLU. Adams (a Democrat) nabbed one of the most liberal justices…let’s see how that works out for him.

If Adams is convicted, he is likely to appeal, and the appeal could come to the Republican-controlled Supreme Court, which recently stand by him public bribery and corruption. However, I don’t think the six conservatives will step in to save Adams, even if he argues that his Turkish friends merely paid him a “gratuity” for his public service. We know Supreme Court justices love free trips, but structuring foreign campaign donations to access public funds would be going too far even for them.

Adams’ best legal option would be to go full MAGA, hoping to get Trump elected in November, and seek clemency. This has worked in the past for people like disgraced Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who received a presidential pardon. Trump also pardoned an aide, Paul Manafort, who was convicted of foreign influence peddling. Adams also happens to be black, and we know that Trump thinks that pardoning black people who kiss enough ass counts as “addressing” the black community.

If Trump loses in November, Adams will likely be up the Bosphorus without an oar. The mayor and his team have apparently been so sloppy in their communication that it shouldn’t be a difficult case for prosecutors if Adams hires non-Trump judges to defend him.

Adams should, of course, step down as mayor and focus on what legal defense he can mount. But I don’t expect him to. New Yorkers made a terrible choice for mayor, and now Adams is forcing them to live with that decision for the rest of his term.

Speaking of terrible decisions by New Yorkers, Rudy Giuliani was disqualified (again) today. I’m starting to wonder if the people who are willing and able to pay $5,000 a month for a one-bedroom in Kips Bay the size of an industrial dump aren’t making the wisest decisions.